viernes, 22 de junio de 2012


El trotar se va a acabar

La última imbecilidad de Rajoy y su gobierno es presentar unas auditorías manipuladas e incompletas como veraces. El gobierno del PP no se da cuenta que tienen miles de cámaras y millones de ojos observando cada gesto y cada movimiento que realizan. No es lo mismo convencer a un borrego que ve religiosamente "El gato al agua" y escucha a Fededico, que intentar comulgar con ruedas de molino a todo occidente.

Bloomberg LP Limited Partnership es una compañía estadounidense que ofrece software financiero, datos y noticias. Tiene una tercera parte del mercado, similar a Thomson Reuters.

Pues Bloomberg ha publicado esto hoy:

Rajoy’s Blown Credibility Puts Spain At Risk Of Sovereign Rescue

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has spent much of the political capital he won seven months ago in the biggest landslide in 30 years, floundering against a crisis that risks making Spain the first $1 trillion economy to need a sovereign bailout, investors and analysts say.
Rajoy, singled out by leaders at the Group of 20 summit, has been taunted by opposition lawmakers and commentators as borrowing costs soared to a euro-era record even after Spain’s banks received a 100 billion-euro ($127 billion) lifeline. Rajoy called the rescue a victory that solved lenders’ problems.
Mariano Rajoy, Spain's prime minister. Photographer: Angel Navarrete/Bloomberg
June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Brendan Brown, chief economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities, discusses Germany's resistance to more euro-zone bailouts and the possibility that France and the Netherlands may adopt a similar stance. He talks with Owen Thomas on Bloomberg Television's "First Look." (Source: Bloomberg)
“He clearly doesn’t get it,” said Gary Jenkins, founder of Swordfish Research Ltd. near London, who has tracked bond markets for more than 15 years. “Spain needs someone who can come in and grasp the seriousness of the situation and react to that, not just pretend everything’s okay.”
The Spanish-bank bailout made Italy the next potential investor target. Together, they could overwhelm the sums committed to safeguard the 17-nation currency bloc. Southern Europe’s two major economies have 2.8 trillion euros of government debt, four times the total of GreecePortugal and Ireland.
“A rescue for Italy is pretty much impossible without a major change in German borrowing costs, a major change in overall euro-zone levels of inflation, a major change in the level of the euro, or a major change in the structure of the euro zone,” Jamie Stuttard, Fidelity Investments’s head of international bond portfolio management in London, said in a telephone interview on June 19.

Rome Summit

Rajoy, 57, who was told by Germany’s Angela Merkel at the G-20 in Mexico June 19 to spell out the depth of his banks’ needs “as soon as possible,” will be under scrutiny today when he faces Merkel and French President Francois Hollande at a meeting in Rome hosted by Italy’sMario Monti.
The contrast between the unelected Monti, praised by global counterparts for his bid to bring order to Italy’s finances, and Rajoy, who came to power just weeks later, is underscored in the bond markets.
When Rajoy took office in December, Italy’s 10-year yields were surging above 7 percent and comparable Spanish debt traded as much as 200 basis points lower. Now, Spain’s 10-year notes yield 87 basis points more than Italy’s.
The International Monetary Fund June 8 urged Spain that devising an “effective communication” strategy is “critical” for financial stability.

‘Entirely Avoidable’

“The Spanish problem was entirely avoidable,” said Thomas Mayer, a Frankfurt-based economic adviser to Deutsche Bank AG. “This has been created by miscommunication.”
The run-up to the bank bailout was marked by policy reversals and self-contradictions by Rajoy, who lost two general elections in Spain before ousting the governing Socialist Party in November.
Rajoy called for the euro region’s rescue fund to recapitalize distressed lenders on May 28, even as he argued that Spanish lenders won’t need external support. On June 2, he called on euro members to give up sovereignty over their budgets to cement a fiscal union, reversing his stance from three months earlier. That’s when he said budgets were a sovereign matter as he defied deficit commitments to the European Union.
The following week, he left it to Economy Minister Luis de Guindos to explain the bank rescue. Eighteen hours later, with Spaniards posting criticism on Twitter with the hashtag #RajoyCobarde -- Rajoy, coward -- and El Pais newspaper accusing him of hiding, the premier spoke to the press.

Rescue Winners

“Yesterday, the credibility of the euro won, yesterday the future won,” he said on June 10. “Yesterday, the European Union won.”
Then, he announced that since the banks’ funding problems were resolved he would continue with his plans to watch the national soccer team play that night and climbed aboard his government jet to fly to the Polish city of Gdansk.
“People were astonished that he was going off to Poland,” Jonathan Tepper, a partner at London-based investment research firm Variant Perception, said in a telephone interview. “Things like that make him look completely incompetent.”
A spokeswoman for Rajoy who asked not to be named said the premier wanted to be clear the June 9 agreement was not a bailout for the sovereign and he wasn’t denying reality. Spain has not been dragging its feet over the aid request since the official position has been that they would wait for yesterday’s stress-test results to decide how much capital would be required, she added.

Yield Surge

Spanish 10-year government bond yields rose as much as 76 basis points in the week that followed, the biggest weekly gain since 1997 and commentators and rival politicians mocked Rajoy for refusing to acknowledge that the loan deal was a bailout.
“Say it with me, it’s - a - res - cue,” Rosa Diez, leader of a minority group, taunted the prime minister in parliament. “Nothing bad’s going to happen if you say it.”
Rajoy’s budget cutting faces virtually no reduction in the 350-member parliament, where hisPeople’s Party has 185 seats.
Still, his standing with the public has taken a beating. A poll conducted for El Mundo by Sigma Dos between June 12 and June 14 showed Rajoy’s disapproval rating doubled to 43 percent from January.
In Mexico, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said it wasn’t all Rajoy’s fault, criticizingEurope’s leaders for fumbling the bailout.
“To have that being a negative story is amazing” given the amount of money pledged, Zoellick told a June 17 panel discussion at the meeting in the Mexican resort of Los Cabos. “The execution was extremely poor.”


sábado, 9 de junio de 2012

Quiero que recordéis este día

Quiero que sepáis que hoy los ciudadanos de España nos dirigimos hacia la miseria más absoluta para defender a una casta de políticos, banqueros y empresarios que han traicionado el país. Quiero que recordéis cual fue el día en que todo pasó de ir mal a ir peor.

Cogido de y de por ahí

Recuerden siempre este día por que España acaba de traspasar estas puertas...

Las puertas del infierno!!

Desde hoy en adelante, van a correr ríos de tinta con el plan de rescate que se acaba de aprobar. De entrada, tengamos claro el mecanismo, dado que la ayuda va directa a sector financiero, es una verdad a medias. Me explico, Europa va a prestar dinero al Estado español mediante el FROB y el FROB, será quién reparta los préstamos entre las entidades financieras.

El FROB es un ente público que depende directamente del Ministerio de Economía y que cuenta con el aval ilimitado del Estado. Por tanto, el responsable del primer préstamo es siempre el Estado español y el responsable de las amortizaciones del FROB y del pago de intereses es siempre el Estado. Abrid bien los ojos, porque es el Estado Español el que responde siempre ante Europa por los préstamos que se hagan y será el responsable del pago de intereses y las amortizaciones de deuda que se pacten.

Actualmente, los costes de financiación del Estado están desbocados, pagamos casi la misma cantidad en intereses de la deuda pública que en prestaciones por desempleo y las entidades que se encuentran en problemas, no tienen capacidad de generación de beneficios para afrontar los intereses. Por ejemplo, BFA-Bankia ha tenido que ser nacionalizada porque no podía pagar los intereses de 4.465 millones de euros en participaciones preferentes. El paganini real de la operación a corto plazo, es el contribuyente, porque los intereses los paga el Estado.

Este plan de préstamo, requiere de manera inmediata un proceso de fusión de entidades financieras, si realmente queremos que el coste económico para las cuentas públicas sea lo mínimo posible. Tal y como vimos en este post, el sistema financiero requiere una megafusión de tal dimesión que sólo queden 4 ó 5 entidades financieras.

En este punto, Santander y BBVA tienen mucho que decir, dado que deben tragarse al resto del sistema financiero casi entero y soportar ellos los costes financieros de la reestructuración, el coste de cierre de oficinas y contar con el apoyo puntual del FROB.

Si no se hace la fusión bancaria en estas dimensiones, el paro sigue desbocado, el gasto público no deja de aumentar, España está condenada a ser parte del tercer mundo en un par de años. El Ministerio de Economía tiene que forzar esas fusiones, por el bien de todos y cuanto antes porque acabamos de atravesar las puertas del infierno con las garantías estatales que estamos comprometiendo.

El rescate del sistema financiero español sí afecta a las cuentas públicas

Y abandonen toda esperanza........

Recuerdan que se modificó en la Constitución.Y como en un contubernio entre ZP y Mariano lo solventaron en un plisplas......

Si abandonen toda esperanza y porque sólo nos salvará de la esclavitud a nosotros y a nuestros descendientes la rebelión.

lunes, 4 de junio de 2012

Los chinos lo saben ¿Y tú? ¿Vas a seguir engañándote?

Rajoy aquí engañarás a la gente, porque son medio imbéciles pero ahí fuera saben la verdad y no están dispuestos a que les chulees.

SPENGLEROpen letter to Chancellor Merkel: Sacrifice SpainBy Spengler

Dear Federal Chancellor:

Friedrich Schiller wrote of the Thirty Years War that history had brought forth a great moment, but the moment encountered a mediocre people. The world today finds itself by contrast in a mediocre moment, but it still may find adept leadership.

No-one would have expected that Germany would decide the fate of the world financial system. International financial institutions - the International Monetary Fund, the Bank for International Settlements, and the European Central Banks - used to formulate

the consensus of major governments and elite opinion. For understandable reasons, Germany was content to take guidance from the international financial community and act as a member of Europe rather than as a national power.

Now the international consensus has collapsed, elite opinion is confused and Germany has become the arbiter of the European financial crisis. The US administration's economic policy has produced poor results and the American president wants to blame his problems on you. Your neighbors, the IMF, and the Obama administration are trying to persuade you to extend Germany's credit to paper over the indebtedness of the rest of Europe. Yet common sense makes clear that Germany's resources are finite, while German voters fail to understand why they should put their future in jeopardy to support countries plagued by corruption and inefficiency.

It is impossible to prevent the destruction of large amounts of nominal wealth, but it is indispensable to preserve the functioning of the banking system. Germany cannot bail out everyone, but it must create a firewall in the right location. This is a practical rather than an ideological matter. There are two questions: where should Germany provide support, and how? It is not enough to refuse the unreasonable demands of your partners, for example, to issue so-called eurobonds (guaranteed de facto by Germany but spent by Europe's laggards). You also must make clear to the markets what the worst-case scenario might be.

At present, Germany appears to respond to events rather than anticipate them. That increases uncertainty and the risk of a major financial crisis. If Germany acted with clarity, though, the outcome would not be a crisis, but rather the deliberate amputation of gangrenous parts of the financial system in order to salvage the whole.

Ultimately, you will have to sacrifice Spain. That will compromise the French banks, which in turn will require German support. Spain is unsalvageable. It is better to take the pain early and deliberately, rather than later and chaotically. Dealing expeditiously with Spain, moreover, should convince Italy to adopt the reforms which can prevent it from following Spain and Greece into de facto national bankruptcy.

Whether Greece chooses national bankruptcy putting the left in power on June 17 or not is a minor matter. The decisive question before you is Spain. Spain has lied and continues to lie systematically about the scale of its financial problems. Its banking system is worthless, and its debt as well as equity should be written down to zero. The facts are that:
  • Spain's construction sector dominates the national economy.
  • Delinquent loans to the construction sector reportedly total about 20% of GDP, and probably exceed twice that amount.
  • The debt of Spanish financial institutions stands at 109% of GDP, double the ratio in France or Germany, and triple the ratio in the United States.
  • The debt of Spanish financial institutions since 2003 grew at twice the rate of the US or the UK, and four times the rate of Germany.
    The trouble with Spain is that its construction sector is enormous relative to the overall economy, as large as the manufacturing sector. By contrast, America's construction sector at the height of the real estate bubble was only a third the size of its manufacturing sector. In Germany, construction is just a fifth the size of manufacturing.

    Exhibit 1: Why Spain is in trouble - construction contribution to GDP as % of manufacturing contribution to GDP


    This distortion in Spain's real economy - the massive misallocation of resources to the construction sector-is reflected in an enormous expansion of the banking sector. Spanish banks' debt on the international bond market grew twice as fast as in the United States during the past decade, and several times as fast as in Germany.

    Exhibit 2: Bank debt grew much faster in Spain than elsewhere

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Exhibit 3: Financial institution debt as % of GDP

    Source: Bank for International Settlements, IMF

    What is this 109% of GDP, the debt of Spanish financial institutions, actually worth? According to Spain's own data, delinquent loans amount to nearly a fifth of GDP, or 184 billion euros (US$228 billion). That would wipe out all the remaining shareholder value attached to the Spanish banking system.

    It seems obvious from the data, however, that Spanish banks' bad loans are far in excess of the reported 184 billion euros. Alone in the world, Spanish banks drastically increased their lending after the 2008 crisis - by nearly two and a half times - while overall bank lending in the United States and the eurozone barely changed due to weak economic conditions. It is widely reported that Spanish banks are piling new loans of bad old loans in order to avoid reporting losses that now probably exceed two-fifths of GDP.

    Exhibit 4: Capitalizing interest on bad loans - Spanish bank assets rise sharply since the crisis

     Banco de Espana

    Spain's economy is dominated by a real estate bubble with an economic weight three times as great as the American real estate bubble at its height. At great cost, and with considerable pain, America has reduced leverage. As the McKinsey Global Institute reported in its January 2012 report on global deleveraging:
    Since the end of 2008, all categories of US private-sector debt have fallen as a percent of GDP. The reduction by financial institutions has been most striking. By mid-2011 the ratio of financial-sector debt relative to GDP had fallen below where it stood in 2000. In dollar terms, it declined from US$8 trillion to $6.1 trillion. Nearly $1 trillion of this decline can be attributed to the collapse of Lehman Brothers, JPMorgan Chase's purchase of Bear Stearns, and the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch merger. Since 2008, banks also have been funding themselves with more deposits and less debt. Among US households, debt has fallen by 4% in absolute terms, or $584 billion. Some two-thirds of that reduction is from defaults on home loans and other consumer debt.
    In America, the tumor was operable - just barely. In Spain, where the tumor is three times the size in relative economic terms, it is inoperable. That is why Spain continues to increase leverage rather than reduce it. The patient (namely the Spanish banking system) must die with the tumor, and with it a very large part of Spanish private wealth, including Spanish bank debt held by Spanish households, pension funds, and insurance companies. Pensions and insurance payments will be reduced and the Spanish will be poorer.

    Nonetheless, the deposits and other short-term obligations of the Spanish financial sector (and all European banks) must be guaranteed. Once its equity and $1.6 trillion in debt is reduced to zero, the Spanish financial sector will become a desirable investment for an outside investor with ready cash - the Chinese, or Canadians, or sovereign wealth funds. Maintaining the day-to-day functioning of the financial sector must be preserved in anticipation of the intervention of an outside buyer; it is an investment that will be repaid. The Spanish won't like having foreigners take over their finances, but they will have only themselves to blame.

    All of this will make clear to the Italians why reform is a much better idea than bankruptcy. Italy's condition is much better than Spain's. It never had much of a real estate bubble; it has relatively little private debt; it has hundreds of first-rate companies with secure niches in world export markets; and it has valuable national assets whose sale could reduce its sovereign debt considerably. What Italy lacks is political clarity. The appropriate handling of Spain will provide the required object lesson.

    You should ignore pressure from the Spanish government and the international institutions to support the debt of Spanish banks. It is worthless, and there is no point impairing Germany's credit to support a $1.6 trillion pile of worthless paper. The international institutions will tell you that a Spanish bankruptcy will compromise the French and British banking systems, because French banks are massively invested in the public and private debt of other European nations. The old capital coverage rules for commercial banks made it prohibitively expensive to own subordinated debt, but very cheap to own senior debt.

    You should ignore these warnings. If necessary, bail out the French banks after Spain's bank debt has been written down to an appropriate valuation, which probably will be close to zero.

    Exhibit 5: Net direct exposure to debt of Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain by banks participating in ECB stress test

    Source: European Banking Authority, McKinsey Global Institute

    The subordinated debt of French banks may not survive. But that is owned by households directly or through pension funds and insurance companies, and is mostly in French hands. If the French banks' subordinated debt is valued at zero, the French people will be poorer, but there will be no systemic consequences. French savers will be angry, but that is a matter between them and President Francois Hollande. The senior debt of the French banks, though, is viable - because the French economy is viable - and supporting the French banks' senior obligations is required to prevent a financial crisis and economic collapse.

    It would be something of a revolution in world affairs for Germany to ignore the international consensus and undertake to resolve the crisis on its own initiative. I submit to you, Federal Chancellor, that it is time for such a revolution.

    You are the most experienced and best qualified among the leaders of the Free World. America is led by a man who was a first-term state senator in Illinois when you were in your second year in office; France is led by a man who has never held high government office; Italy is led by a technocrat with no political base; it doesn't matter who leads Japan, and one can only have sympathy for whomever governs Spain. For the time being the head seat at the table is yours by default. It is in your power to avert this crisis, if you act decisively.



    Spengler is channeled by David P Goldman. His book How Civilizations Die (and why Islam is Dying, Toowas published by Regnery Press in September 2011. A volume of his essays on culture, religion and economics, It's Not the End of the World - It's Just the End of Youalso appeared this fall, from Van Praag Press.

    (Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)